Department of Human Development

HUDM 4122 | Fall 2025

Probability and Statistical Inference

▮ COURSE DESCRIPTION

This course provides an introduction to probability and statistics for students in social sciences. The fundamentals of probability theory will be illustrated with examples drawn from behavioral and social sciences. Topics include elementary probability theory, conditional probability and independence, random variables, probability distributions, and statistical inferences using p-value approach, confidence interval approach, and hypothesis testing approach.

The focus of this course is on basic statistics and research tools, which are useful in conducting experiments, describing data, and making inferences about the population. It is the first course of a series of statistics courses offered in the Department of Human Development. Therefore, it is not expected that students will leave the class knowing all the basic research tools, but this course will lay the groundwork for future study. By the completion of the course, students will be familiar with ideas of statistical modeling, data analysis and interpretation.

▮ MEETING TIMES

This class is designed to deliver instruction in both an asynchronous and synchronous manner, with typically web-based assignments, discussion board, and other web-assisted learning tools. The instructor will recap information during online zoom meetings -- it will be every Monday (11:00AM - 12:00PM EST), starting from September 8th. Note that CAs offer online office hours as well. Assignments and exchanges will be structured around a weekly schedule. The "Weekly Material" section under the "Modules" tab contains a document listing the topics and readings for the whole semester by week, in addition to a set of week-by-week folders (for example, this week's folder is labeled "Week One (9/2 - 9/8)". Each week's folder contains a list of course work activities (readings, lecture notes, etc.), along with additional resources to use during your study. You should use the information in the weekly folders to create a personal schedule so that all of the work listed in the folder is completed by the end of that week.

▮ TEXTBOOK

Mendenhall, W., Beaver, R., & Beaver, B. (2012). Introduction to Probability and Statistics (14th ed.). New York: Duxbury Press.

*** Either 12th or 13th edition will be ok to use. It may be much cheaper if you get it online. If you use the earlier editions, the page numbers for reading assignments may not correspond to what I assign.

▮ COURSE REQUIREMENTS

Grades in this course will be based on a total number of points earned. Grades will be based on completion of the homework assignments (30%), on the scores of the midterm exam and the final exam (35% each). Attendance will not be counted as a part of your grade.

Examinations                            70 % of Grade                          Exam Date: Midterm 10/24 -10/25 Final 12/16 - 12/17

There will be two exams. Both exams are online and timed (3 hours). The final exam is cumulative. Examinations will consist almost entirely of problems whose solution requires calculations. It is highly recommended that you bring a calculator to the exam sessions. For the exams, you may use a single-page (8.5" x 11"; no double-sided) “cheat/reference” sheet, handwritten by you. You must create your own cheat sheet. Sharing, photocopying, or otherwise duplicating another student’s cheat sheet is prohibited and will be considered a form. of academic misconduct. Making a good cheat sheet is effectively studying what you need to know for the exam. The exam is also your application of knowledge so not whether you can memorize a formula, but whether you know how to properly apply that formula.

You will not be asked to derive formulas, but will be required to perform. numerous calculations. You are expected to demonstrate how to solve the exam problems; you should show that you know what the calculator is doing, as if you performed the calculations by hand. Show your work to obtain full credit (given your answer is correct) or partial credit (given your answer is incorrect).

If you know in advance that there are compelling and unusual circumstances that might interfere with your performance on an examination, please inform. the instructor. A time will be scheduled for a make-up examination to accommodate those who inform. the instructor in advance of a need for one.

Homework Assignments               30% of Grade                    Due Date: See the Schedule below

Five homework assignments (5-6% each) will be given and graded. Homework assignments will be distributed on the marked dates (*) and due by a week from the day the homework was issued. It is intended to provide you with practice at solving problems like those that you will encounter as a behavioral and social scientist and that, of course, will be on the examinations. All work must be completed and turned in on time (Late assignments will not be accepted). You may consult the instructor, TA, tutors, classmates, or others while working on the homework assignments, but what you turn in should be in your own words. All work should be lucid, orderly, and self-managed.

You can complete and submit your homework in one of 2 different ways.

Option 1: Use Statistical Notation symbols. This requires the use of the "Math Equation" editor that is embedded in our course site (click the 5th icon on the 2nd row of the toolbar). It is self-explanatory.

Option 2: Spell out the Statistical Notation. In this option, for example, instead of using the symbol "Σ", you would type "sigma". A "Glossary of Statistical Notation Terms" is available for your reference, located in the "Modules" section.

Please show your work so that we may give you partial credit if applicable. Please round all numbers in your answers to FOUR decimal places.

You are only allowed to submit your homework ONCE. Be sure you have completed every question and have typed all of your answers into the homework module answer spaces to your satisfaction before hitting the "submit" button, as the homework module will not allow multiple submissions.

Although you can only submit once, the homework assignments are set so that you can enter, logout and re-enter them and therefore, you DO NOT have to remain online while working on your homework. It is suggested that you access and print out the homework, work out the problems on paper, log back onto the Internet and into our course site and then access the homework module again, type your answers in the appropriate answer spaces and then hit submit.