GROUP REPORT
The group report is to be written in groups of 4 students.
Deadline: Friday, 28th March 2025 (noon)
Length: maximum of 4000 words
Submission: Please submit your work ONCE (per group) on or before March 28th, 2025, via the link provided on Canvas.
Instructions for the group assignment
Data
Obtain time series data on the price of a single commodity. The choice of commodity is yours. An appropriate data source would be Bloomberg, Refinitiv or similar. The information about how this data can be accessed should be clear.
Analysis
(1) Transform the data if necessary. (2) Plot the data and tabulate the descriptive statistics. Comment on your observations. (3) Conduct ARIMA modelling. (4) Appraise the adequacy of the results and apply appropriate diagnostic procedures. (5) Forecast the commodity price using appropriate forecasting methods and evaluate your forecasts. Select the best model for forecasting. (6) Compare your methods and findings with those of other empirical studies on this topic (in the conclusion to your report).
The complete R file used for your analysis must be included in the Appendix of the Report for reference.
Report
Write an analytical report of all your analysis. Your report should read like an extended academic article. Read some empirical papers such as Applied Economics Letters and copy their style. Your report should include: a) a short Introduction, b) a Literature Review, c) a Data Set section, d) an Empirical Results and Modelling section, and e) a Conclusions section. Discuss the choice of the best ARIMA model, including references if you refer to any of the related studies.
Further Instructions:
Bear in mind that commodity prices tend to be highly correlated and often exhibit persistence. Therefore, make sure you conduct unit root tests to determine the stochastic properties of the data.
The sample size plays an important role in the precision of your results. Consider the sample size and the exact definition of the data.
The final project report must be typed. Relevant tables and figures should be within the main text. Do NOT include your computer printouts in the main text; they can be included in the Appendix for reference. Screenshots are unacceptable. You should process and digest the relevant information from the computer printouts and then summarise them in tables that should be in the main text. Note that a lot of the results can be condensed into a few tables. Read journal articles and copy their style. As mentioned above, the complete R file used for your analysis must be included in the Appendix for reference.
Leave time for writing up - this tends to be overlooked. Sometimes students who can do all of the analysis fail to describe what they have done and what it means. Do not just transcribe the results of performing dozens of regressions. Try to structure the interpretation of the results, pose questions and explain how the regressions provide answers to them.
Marking:
The group report will be marked using the criteria specified in the Marking Rubric that is available on Canvas.
The individual mark you will obtain for the group report depends on the joint mark the group will receive from the marker AND your individual peer assessment score. For the latter, you will rate yourself and your group members on a scale of 1 (very poor effort) – 5 (full effort).
Suppose you are part of a group of four. The maximum number of points you can receive is 20. Suppose, you assign yourself a 3; your first group member assigns you a 3, your second group member assigns you a 4; and your third group member assigns you a 5. Then, your total score will be 3 + 3 + 4 + 5 = 15, and your score will be 15/20 = 0.75.
80% of the mark is awarded to all group members. This means that for an assignment scoring 60, all group members have 48.
20% of the mark is adjusted according to your average peer assessment score. A student who is rated at 75% effort will end up with 57, in the above example.
. Peer assessment is compulsory. If you do not assess all your group members, you automatically get 0% effort.
. Peer assessment is anonymous via Canvas.
. your individual mark = 0.8 * (joint mark) + 0.2 * (average peer score/20) * (joint mark)
Further examples: assume the group mark assigned by the marker (joint mark) is 60.
i) If you are a group of four, and your individual score based on your rating of your effort and others’ ratings of your effort is 10 out of the possible maximum 20 (i.e., 0.5), then your individual mark is = (0.8*60) + (0.2*0.5*60) = 54.
ii) If you are a group of four, and your individual score based on your rating of your effort and others’ ratings of your effort is 15 out of the possible maximum 20 (i.e., 0.75), then your individual mark is = (0.8*60) + (0.2*0.75*60) = 57.
iii) If you are a group of four, and your individual score based on your rating of your effort and others’ ratings of your effort is 20 out of the possible maximum 20 (i.e., 1), then your individual mark is = (0.8*60) + (0.2*1*60) = 60.
Feedback
The project is to be completed without supervision.
After marking is complete, students will receive detailed generic feedback as well as feedback on each group submission.