MSO3610 Financial Data Analysis
Coursework
Issued: 24 January 2024
Submission Date: 1 March 2024
This coursework is an individual coursework and carries 50% of the total module assessment. It is expected that you will use Excel, Minitab and Word (or other suitable word processing software) to do this coursework. The coursework should be submitted electronically on the module webpage portal in pdf format as one single document no later than 23:59 on 1 March 2024.
The coursework is based on the subject of Time Series which we covered in the Weeks 13, 14 and 15 lectures. However, you should also draw on previous work we have covered especially Correlation and Regression covered in the Weeks 11 and 12 lectures.
Coursework
Go online and find and download the following three data sets for the period 1 January 2022 to 31 December 2023.
You will also need additional data for 1 January 2024 to 15 January 2024.
A. Download either BP share prices OR Shell share prices on the London Stock Exchange (NOT BOTH).
B. Download either Brent Crude Oil prices OR WTI Crude Oil prices in USDollars (NOT BOTH).
C. Download GBP - USD exchange rates.
1. Using various methods we have covered in lectures and seminars carry out a
thorough analysis of the share prices and the oil prices you have chosen of the two data sets (A and B) by drawing appropriate graphs, carrying out appropriate calculations, producing descriptive statistics and importantly consider the relationship between the two data sets, for which you will need to consider the currencies of the two data sets. Write a short summary (up to 250 words) explaining what you have done and your findings. Explain any difficulties you encountered and how you dealt with them. (30%)
2. Using various forecasting methods we have covered in lectures (Trend, Moving Average, Single Exponential Smoothing, Double Exponential Smoothing and Winters Method) and possibly others make forecasts for the following ten time points from one of either the share price or the oil price. Compare these forecasts to the actual prices from 1 January 2024 to the 15 January 2024 using MAD, MSE, RMSE and MAPE. (30%).
3. Write a summary (up to 500 words) explaining what you have done, your findings and any conclusions you have arrived at. Explain any difficulties you encountered and how you dealt with them. (20%)
4. Clear presentation and well written work.(10%)
5. Any relevant additional information and analysis will attract marks.(10%)
6. Each coursework should come with a cover sheet stating just your student number. When submitting coursework keep a copy and obtain a receipt.
7. Handwritten work is not acceptable.
8. The coursework must be the work of the individual and nobody else. Any work that is a copy or near copy of another student will be reported to the University’s Registry which could institute disciplinary procedures.
9. An electronic copy of your coursework should be submitted in pdf format as one single document no later than 23:59 on 1 March 2024.
Marking Scheme
Extract & Clean Correct Data 10
Analysis of initial time points 10
Relationship between sets 10
Explain what done & findings 5
Forecast remaining 9 15
Compare MAD,RMSE,MAPE 15
Summary & Conclusions 10
Difficulties 5
Extra 10
Presentation 10