What is the tentative title of your dissertation?*

The application of social media sentiment analysis to political and social issues: from the US presidential election to the impact assessment of TikTok banning bills, anti-Semitism awareness bills and other real-time events"

What is your dissertation’s topic? Why is it relevant? What is its contribution to the research field? (approx. 300 words)*

The rapid development of social media has dramatically broadened the public's access to a diverse array of information. In recent years, platforms like TikTok have risen to prominence, challenging the dominance of established giants such as Facebook and Instagram. This shift has introduced global perspectives that aren't solely US-centric, influencing public sentiment towards various policies and societal norms.

My dissertation delves into how these changing information landscapes are influencing the upcoming US presidential election. It specifically examines the role of emerging social issues that have stirred public opinion and could significantly affect electoral outcomes. For instance, the dissertation will analyze the implications of the TikTok banning bill, which raises significant concerns about freedom of speech and governmental overreach. This investigation seeks to understand whether public trust diminishes when the government imposes restrictions on digital platforms, which are seen as spaces for free expression.

Additionally, the study explores the introduction of legislative measures such as anti-Semitism awareness bills and initiatives for better recognition of Asian American communities. These measures are pivotal in understanding whether they enhance public recognition of racial injustices or inadvertently contribute to heightened racial tensions. Such legislative actions are crucial in evaluating whether they bolster or undermine long-standing efforts to eradicate racial discrimination.

Building on these points, my research aims to assess how shifts in public sentiment regarding government actions and societal changes might influence voter behavior. and predictions about the presidential race. This dissertation contributes to the field by linking shifts in social media discourse with tangible political outcomes, providing insights into how digital media influences democratic engagement and voter perception in the modern era.

Please describe the current state-of-the-art in the field. What are the main theories, concepts and methods being developed by researchers in the field? What gap in the field will your research address? (approx. 400 words)*

The field of social media analytics, particularly its impact on political dynamics, is currently undergoing significant advancements. Researchers are increasingly leveraging advanced computational techniques and machine learning algorithms to parse vast amounts of social media data. These developments allow for more nuanced analysis of public sentiment and its potential to sway political outcomes.

Key theories being explored include the 'Echo Chamber' effect, where social media users are exposed primarily to political opinions that reinforce their own beliefs, potentially intensifying partisan divisions. Another important concept is the 'Agenda-setting Theory' which suggests that the issues most prominently featured on social media platforms can influence public perception and, consequently, the political agenda.

Methodologically, there is a growing emphasis on real-time sentiment analysis and predictive analytics. These techniques employ natural language processing (NLP) to gauge public mood and predict future trends based on current discussions. Researchers are also developing more sophisticated models to track changes in public opinion over time, correlating these shifts with major political events or policy announcements.

My research aims to fill gaps in understanding how specific legislative actions, like the TikTok banning bill and anti-Semitism awareness bills, affect public opinion in the digital age. I will explore whether these legislations lead to significant shifts in online discourse and whether these shifts have a tangible impact on voter behavior. and election outcomes. The study will also examine the role of social media in amplifying or mitigating the effects of these policies, providing insights into the interplay between online platforms and legislative processes.

This dissertation will contribute to the broader field by mapping the direct and indirect effects of governmental policies on public sentiment, as reflected in social media. It will also evaluate the efficacy of social media as a tool for gauging public reaction to legislative changes, offering a critical assessment of its role in modern democratic societies.

What are your research questions? Please, formulate them as directly and as clearly as possible?*

My research question is the impact and prediction of the US election under social media sentiment analysis, which will include how controversial policy contexts such as the TikTok ban bill and the Anti-Semitism Awareness Act will affect popular perceptions, and how the correlation between discussions on social media platforms and legislative actions affecting freedom of speech and racial discrimination

How do you intend to conduct your research? Which methods will you use, including, as relevant, tools, datasets, case studies, theories, and concepts? In short, what is the overall design of your study? Please elaborate as much as possible. (approx. 500 words)*

To undertake my research on predicting public opinion trends in response to political events and legislative developments, I will primarily utilize data from polling websites. This approach will focus on assessing public sentiments toward upcoming U.S. presidential elections and new legislative measures such as the TikTok banning bill and anti-Semitism awareness bills.

The central methodology involves collecting and analyzing data from established polling websites that survey public opinion on a wide range of topics, including political preferences and reactions to new laws and regulations. These websites provide a robust source of quantitative data reflecting the current sentiments and potential shifts in public opinion leading up to significant political events like the presidential elections.

In this study, I aim to explore how the electorate's views on these pivotal issues correlate with their voting intentions and perceptions of political candidates. This analysis will be particularly crucial in understanding the impact of social media platforms and legislative changes on public opinion. For example, the TikTok banning bill, which raises significant questions about freedom of expression and privacy, could influence voters' perceptions of political figures and parties depending on their stance towards such legislation.

Additionally, the research will delve into public reactions to specific bills such as the anti-Semitism awareness bill, examining whether these initiatives alter public sentiment towards broader societal issues like racial and religious discrimination. By analyzing polling data, I will identify trends and patterns that may predict electoral outcomes or shifts in public policy preferences.

The analysis will involve descriptive statistics to summarize the data and inferential statistics to interpret the implications of the findings. I will use statistical software to conduct regression analysis, testing hypotheses about the relationship between public opinion on these issues and their potential impact on election results and policy making.

This research design allows for a comprehensive understanding of the dynamics at play in shaping public opinion at critical junctures in American politics. By focusing on polling data, the study offers a direct insight into the electorate's mood and preferences, providing a clear picture of how legislative and political developments are likely to influence the forthcoming electoral decisions and public attitudes towards governance and civil liberties.

Overall, this dissertation will contribute to the understanding of political behavior. in the context of major elections and legislative changes, offering insights into how public opinion forms and evolves in response to the interplay between policy, media influence, and societal trends.

Please provide a short bibliography containing at least five key works related to your dissertation’s topic.*

Jabbary, A.J., 2024. Socially Racialized and Statistically Invisible: US Census Recognition of The Middle Eastern and North African Diaspora.

Ginsberg, B., 2024. The New American Anti-Semitism: The Left, the Right, and the Jews. Independent Institute.

Rinehart, W., 2024. The Complex Case of TikTok in the United States. The Center for Growth and Opportunity.

Please provide your supervisor a tentative outline of your dissertation containing all of its sections and subsections, as well as a few lines on what each will address. (approx. 300 words)*

1. Introduction

Purpose of the Study: This section will introduce the main focus of the dissertation, explaining the significance of social media sentiment analysis in understanding public opinion in political contexts.

Relevance to Current Events: Briefly discuss the relevance of this study against the backdrop of upcoming US elections and recent legislation debates such as the TikTok banning bill， anti-Semitism awareness bills and Statistical Policy Directive 15.

2. Literature Review

Previous Research: Summarize key findings from previous studies on social media analytics, sentiment analysis, and their impact on political forecasting.

Theoretical Frameworks: Review the theoretical underpinnings that support the use of sentiment analysis in political science research.

Gap in Literature: Identify the gaps in current research that the dissertation aims to fill, particularly in the context of real-time event analysis and its impact on public sentiment.

3. Methodology

Data Collection: Describe the sources of data, particularly the polling websites and social media platforms like Twitter, which will be used to gather sentiment data.

Analytical Techniques: Outline the statistical and computational methods to be used for analyzing the sentiment data.

Validation Methods: Explain the techniques for validating the findings from sentiment analysis to ensure reliability and accuracy.

4. Case Studies

2020 US Presidential Election: Analyze sentiment analysis data to interpret how public opinion varies in response to candidate campaigns and major election events.

Legislative Impact Analysis: Evaluate public sentiment concerning the TikTok banning bill and anti-Semitism awareness bills to understand the broader societal impact.

Comparative Analysis: Compare the effectiveness of sentiment analysis in predicting election outcomes with traditional polling methods.

5. Results

Findings from Sentiment Analysis: Present the results of sentiment analysis, highlighting significant trends and anomalies.

Interpretation of Results: Discuss the implications of the findings in the context of political behavior. and public opinion trends.

Comparative Success Rates: Assess the predictive power of sentiment analysis compared to other methods.

6. Discussion

Implications for Political Strategy: Discuss how politicians and policymakers can use sentiment analysis insights for campaign strategies and policy-making.

Ethical Considerations: Address the ethical concerns related to privacy and manipulation of public sentiment through social media.

7. Conclusion

Summary of Key Findings: Recap the major discoveries of the dissertation and their significance.

Future Research Directions: Suggest areas for future research that can build upon the findings of this study.

Potential Limitations: Acknowledge any limitations encountered during the research and suggest ways to address them in future studies.

8. References

Cited Works: Provide a comprehensive list of all sources referenced throughout the dissertation.

9. Appendices

Supplementary Data: Include any supplementary charts, graphs, or raw data that support the research findings