Preview Test: ENVM7512 Semester One End-Of-Semester Examination 2022 - PART A
QUESTION 1
Systems dynamics models are often used to model complex systems with feedback loops. Imagine a fish population systems model that exhibits population growth with both a reinforcing feedback loop and a balancing feedback loop such that the population growth slows toward carrying capacity (i.e. goal seeking behavior). What kind of population growth does this describe? Select one answer below.
Growth with overshoot.
Oscillation.
Exponential growth.
S-shaped growth.
QUESTION 2
What best describes performance measures? Select one answer below.
None of the answers.
Metrics for evaluating expert judgement.
Indicators used for monitoring ecosystem health.
Metrics to measure the state of the system in relation to an objective.
QUESTION 3
What is the initial framework for evaluating trade-off s? Select one answer below.
A means-end diagram.
A trade-off table
A strategy table.
A consequence table.
QUESTION 4
Which of the following should be considered alternatives instead of objectives? Select one answer below.
i) Create 100 hectares of habitat
ii) Maximize turtle populations
iii) Minimise costs
iv) Produce 100kg of coff ee
i, ii
i, iv
iii, iv
ii, iii
QUESTION 5
What is NOT a type of objective in structured decision-making? Select one answer below.
Tactical objective.
Strategic objective.
Fundamental objective.
Means objective.
QUESTION 6
What bias occurs when we interpret new information in a way that affi rms our current beliefs? Select one answer below.
Anchoring bias.
Framing eff ect.
Confi rmation bias.
Overconfi dence bias.
QUESTION 7
Which of the following is considered a conceptual model? Select one answer below.
Habitat model.
Infl uence diagram.
Bayesian Belief Network.
Population model.
QUESTION 8
What type of performance measure is illustrated in the figure below?
Select one answer below.
Natural measure.
Proxy measure.
Constructed measure.
Structured measure.
QUESTION 9
Which analysis is used to assess the costs and benefi ts of an alternative when the benefi ts are in monetary terms? Select one answer below.
None of the answers.
Cost-eff ectiveness analysis.
Cost analysis.
Cost-benefi t analysis.
QUESTION 10
The below figure shows an effi ciency plot for an environmental objective and a cost objective. Which dots represent dominating alternatives? Select one answer below.
A, E, D
B, F, C
A, F, C
E, C, D
QUESTION 11
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School of Earth & Environmental Sciences
EXAMINATION
Semester One Final Examinations, 2022
ENVM7512 Environmental Problem Solving
Short Answer Questions Component (Questions 11-15)
Question 11. Figure A below shows the number of proteas detected (a type of flower) as a function of initial survey investment. What concept is represented in this figure? Describe the concept using information in the figure. Further describe what best defines the highlighted areas in each of Figure B and C. (8 marks)
Question 12. What are the advantages of a Delphi elicitation over simply polling the top
experts in a field? Use examples and/or plots to illustrate your answer (12 marks)
Question 13. Explain the issues with using targets in environmental decisions and how should they be considered if they are incorporated in a decision? Include examples to illustrate your points. (10 marks)
Question 14. Uncertainty is an important component of environmental problems. One way to articulate uncertainty is as hypotheses. The below table shows the expected probability of survival over 10 years of a threatened Banksia species resulting from two different fire management strategies and two hypotheses about how Banksia reproduction is impacted by fire interval. The objective of the managers is to maximise the probability of survival of the Banksia population. Using the information contained in the table, calculate the value of resolving the uncertainty in the importance of fire (show your working). To reduce this uncertainty monitoring would be required at a cost of $90,000, and managers are willing to pay $100,000 for each 0.1 increment increase in survival probability for the Banksia.
Based on the value of information you calculated, would you recommend monitoring be implemented? Briefly state why.
(20 marks)
Table for Question 14:
|
Hypotheses Actions
|
Long interval between fires
is important for Banksia
reproduction
|
Short interval between fires
is important for Banksia
reproduction
|
|
Belief
|
0.3
|
Belief
|
0.7
|
|
No active fire management
|
0.3
|
0.9
|
|
Active fire
management
|
0.8
|
0.1
|
Question 15. Below is a consequence table for an environmental problem. A regional
government must decide whether to regulate an emerging seaweed
industry in their region. The government would like to maximise the
benefit they receive through providing revenue and jobs to the local
economy, maximising sustainability benefits to local cattle industry
(seaweed as feed) while minimising the impacts on biodiversity. Simplify the consequence table, then using the swing weighting results provided and the simplified consequence table, calculate the expected utility of each alternative (show your work). Note that water contamination can be reduced at a cost of $1 million part per tonne (ppt), which would come out of the projected profit. Based on your calculations which alternative would you recommend to the community and why?
(30 marks)
Table for Question 15:
|
Objectives
|
Measurable Attribute
|
Direction
|
Weight
|
Alternatives
|
|
No
seaweed
|
No
regulation
|
Seaweed
with
restricted
access to
areas of
importance
to
biodiversity
|
Seaweed
only for
feed
|
|
Projected profit
|
$ Millions
|
Max
|
0.333
|
0
|
20
|
15
|
10
|
|
Biodiversity loss
|
Probability
|
Min
|
0.267
|
0.05
|
0.9
|
0.1
|
0.7
|
|
Jobs
|
Hundreds
of full-time
equivalents
(FTEs)
|
Max
|
0.167
|
0
|
10
|
8
|
2
|
|
Sustainable beef
|
Methane emissions
|
Min
|
0.067
|
0
|
9
|
5
|
6
|
|
Water
contamination
|
ppt
|
Min
|
0.167
|
0
|
2
|
6
|
11
|
* Equation for normalising values (v) in each row: