FINS5542 Assignment 2
Date Due: 11pm 28 October, with electronic submission via the course
website.
1. Critically evaluate, in less than 1200 words, the role of technical
analysis in equity markets.
Please include appropriate references, with a reference section. Both
content and writing quality are key criteria of equal importance.
[30 marks]
2. In this question we will conduct a backtesting exercise for the 1998
year. For each trading day in 1998 we must graph the 99% VaR that
was computed 10 trading days before and we must also graph the
realised loss in the portfolio that occurs over this same period.
One is required to produce two graphs. The first graph should be the
backtesting of the VaR method under normality. The second graph
should be the backtesting of the VaR method under historical sim-
ulation of daily changes in prices. Finally, one should interpret the
findings from both of these graphical displays, (noting presentation
quality is important).
For these exercises, assume that we hold a portfolio of 10 assets,
namely, aan3, aan4, aan5, aan6, aan7, aan8, aan16, aan17, aan18
and aan19 where $30,000 dollars was the value of our holdings in each
of the stocks ten trading days before the first trading day in 1998. i.e.
On 17 December 1997, the value of our portfolio is $300,000. Also
assume that the number of shares we hold in each of these stocks does
not change over the time frame of our back-testing exercise. Finally,
in computing the VaR estimates one should use the last 750 changes
in prices. The data is located on the fins5542 Moodle page. See last
page, for variable names.
In addition to printing out the Excel graphs, one should also print out
the Ox computer code.
[20 marks]
1
3. In this question we will conduct a backtesting exercise for a portfolio
of 6 stocks for the 2020 year. For each trading day in 2020 we must
graph the 99% VaR that was computed 10 trading days before and we
must also graph the realised loss in the portfolio that occurs over this
same period.
One is required to produce two graphs. The first graph should be the
backtesting of the VaR method under normality. The second graph
should be the backtesting of the VaR method under historical sim-
ulation of daily changes in prices. Finally, one should interpret the
findings from both of these graphical displays, (noting presentation
quality is important).
For these exercises, assume that $500,000 dollars was the value of our
holdings in each of Apple Inc, Cisco Systems Inc, Chevron Corp, Intel
Corp, Coco-Cola Co and Walt Disney Co ten trading days before the
first trading day in 2020. Also assume that the number of shares we
hold in each of these stocks does not change over the time frame of
our back-testing exercise. Finally, in computing the VaR estimates
one should use the last 800 changes in prices.
In addition to printing out the Excel graphs, one should also print out
the Ox computer code.
[30 marks]
2
Variable Name
aan1 CISCO SYSTEMS INC
aan2 MICROSOFT CORP
aan3 INTEL CORP
aan4 TEXAS INSTRUMENTS INC
aan5 SPRINT CORP
aan6 AMGEN INC
aan7 INTERPUBLIC GROUP COS INC
aan8 MELLON BANK CORP
aan9 WARNER LAMBERT CO
aan10 BRISTOL MYERS SQUIBB CO
aan11 ENRON CORP
aan12 GENERAL ELECTRIC CO
aan13 TIME WARNER INC
aan14 EXXON CORP
aan15 DELL COMPUTER CORP
aan16 AMERICAN EXPRESS CO
aan17 SUN MICROSYSTEMS INC
aan18 CORNING INC
aan19 FORD MOTOR CO DEL