INST0092 Mathematics and Statistics in Information Studies

Conducting statistical analysis and reporting findings on immigration to the UK

This assignment counts as 100% of the total course assessment.

Scenario

You are working as a data analyst for a governmental body working on UK's migration. As part of a larger project, which aims to produce accurate forecasts on immigration to the UK, you have been asked to analyse historical data on immigration to the UK of British, European (i.e. from a country that is part of the European Union, noted as EU) and Non-European (Non-EU) citizens. The main aim of the brief is to conduct a list of data analysis tasks on historical data and present findings in a 2,500-word report to be circulated amongst senior stakeholders.

Dataset

The dataset can be found on Moodle in the Assessment section titled “Immigration Figures in the UK.xslx” in the tab “Assessment Dataset”. The source of the dataset is the House of Commons and the Office for National Statistics (ONS) and it was downloaded through Statista, which you can access using your UCL account:

House of Commons, & Office for National Statistics (UK). (May 22, 2025). Number of immigrants entering the United Kingdom from 4th quarter 1991 to 4th quarter 2024, by citizenship (in 1,000s) [Graph]. In Statista. Retrieved August 13, 2025, from https://www-statista-com.libproxy.ucl.ac.uk/statistics/284038/immigration-figures-uk-by-citizenship/

Tasks

The list of tasks that you must complete as part of this assessment is as follows.

1. Provide an analysis of the levels of immigration to the UK by citizenship and overall using descriptive statistics and using only formulas on Microsoft Excel.

2. Evaluate your calculations (i.e. ensure they are correct) using Microsoft Excel's Data Analysis toolkit. Presented statistics should be described in the report, for a general audience. Any salient results must be highlighted. 

3. Senior stakeholders are assuming that non-EU immigrants make on average over 40% of total immigrants to the UK (EU, Non-EU and UK) every year. You must test this claim. On your report, present the test performed and its findings, highlighting any salient results.

4. Your report must include visuals demonstrating how immigration to the UK is trending. You should demonstrate trends for each citizenship group and overall, using appropriate plots and statistics which are clear, readable and address the task. For any models that you develop present and interpret the results on your report. Based on the visualisations you produce and your calculations, to what extent can these models be trusted in your opinion?

5. Your report must also feature future projections. These must be supported by appropriate visualisations. Any assumptions made must be disclosed, the accuracy of those projections must also be reported. Consider including in your report potential measures that would help improve the accuracy of the projections.

Report Structure

Ensure that your report follows this structure:

· It begins with an “Executive Summary”, that summarises in less than a page, the key findings of your work.

· Executive Summary is followed by the “Introduction” that introduces the reader to the report, including the broader context (i.e. what is this report about and who is it for) and practicalities of the work (e.g. the dataset utilised, the report’s structure, or details about the accompanying Excel file).

· The main body of the report includes a section for each one of the tasks, titled appropriately (e.g. “Dataset Summary”, not “Task 1”).

· The report concludes with the “Conclusion” that summarises in 2-3 sentences the work that was performed and then highlights pathways forward, answering for example questions such as “How could this work be continued? What is worth exploring next?”.

References and Captions

For all visual components make sure you include a properly numbered 'Figure Caption' below each one, which includes enough context that the figure and caption make sense on their own.

Any references should be provided using footnotes according to the Chicago Manual of Style, and you should include a properly formatted works cited page.

Deliverables

The coursework is comprised by 2 deliverables:

1. A Microsoft Excel spreadsheet: The Microsoft Excel file containing all the calculations as these are required in the Tasks listed above. It would be useful to use clear structure (e.g. employing different tabs), appropriate formatting and whenever necessary to include brief descriptions to support the work conducted.

2. Findings Report: A written report 2,500 words long (maximum) that follows the structure noted above (in the “Report Structure” section) and features the work described in the “Tasks” section. The report must be professionally presented, as it is meant to be circulated with the senior governmental stakeholders and policy makers.

Submission Details

Two separate files must be submitted:

1. The Microsoft Excel spreadsheet (.xlsx) file 
The file name should consist of Student Number (SRN) + module code e.g. "12345678-INST0092.xlsx".

2. The written report in PDF format (.pdf)
The file name should consist of Student Number (SRN) + module code e.g. "12345678-INST0092.pdf". The first page of the written report must provide: (1) our student number (SRN); (2) The module code and title; (3) The lecturer's name.

Generative AI

This assessment is “Category 2. GenAI tools can be used in an assistive role”. You are allowed to use AI tools to improve your writing, or to help you with your learning (e.g. to help explain parts of the textbook, or of the theory and examples covered in class).

It is critical that this assessment is your own, original, piece of work, consisting of your own technical work (calculations) and critical reflection (report).

Your report must include a statement at the end of the paper outlining how you have used generative AI or other writing aids (if at all). This statement is not included in the word count. 

Word count

The following do not count towards the word-count:

· Text on tables and visualisations

· List of references

· Acknowledgement of any use of AI

Your submission MUST comply with the UCL regulations about plagiarism which

are available from the UCL website at

https://www.ucl.ac.uk/students/exams-and-assessments/plagiarism

Marking Rubric