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Causal Loop Modelling
This module introduces you to an effective way to
integrate stakeholders’ diverse mental models and
perspectives – Creating platforms for discussion and
analysis using Causal Loop Diagrams (CLDs). Before
working through this module, it is recommended that
you read Chapter 4 of the ‘Systems Thinking for
Everyone’ book: “Discovering the big picture” (pp.
30 – 35).
Systems Thinking Tools
Other pollution
Service quality Agriculture
sources
Attraction of pollution
CB island
New construction
Biodiversity Infrastructure
Number of
Tourism
tourists Agriculture
pollution
Systems Thinking has a set of usefurle v‘etnuoeols’, e.g.
Tourism Access to
? Causal Loop Diagrams (CLD)
revenue market
Available
Investment in
underground
Waste agriculture
water ? Systems Archetypes (SA)
GDP per
Hotels and Information and
capita
? Bayesian BelieRfe sNtaueratnwts orks (BBN) communication
Use of
underground
water
? Evolutionary Learning Laboratory (ELLab)
Misuse of Livelihood of
? Sensitivity Mod Ne Rl (SensiMod) Commoner Food safety
NR conservation
Health
? Viable System Model (VSM)
Poverty
Life expectancy
Educated Immigration
Lack ?of IntSegtraotecd kpla nanningd Flow Diagrams
population
Population
? System Dynamics Modelling Student
population
Cultural
NGOs ? GoSveyrnnantcee graPtoiloiciens - and more…values
structure Social
issues
Tourism
People’s
development
awareness
? 3
Systems Thinking Tools
The systems tools that you are going to learn in this course
include those that can be used by EVERYONE – that is, you
? Causal Loop Diagrams (CLD)
don’t have to be an expert in the systems sciences. The
? Systems Archetypes (SA)
tools included in this course are those that you would find
? Bayesian Belief Networks (BBN)
most useful in your day to day management of complex
? Evolutionary Learning Laboratory (ELLab)
projects / issues of any nature and size:
? Sensitivity Model (Basis of Ecopolicy)
? Viable System Model (VSM)
? Causal Loop Diagrams (CLD)
? Stock and Flow Diagrams
? ? SysSteymst Deymnasm Aicrsc Mheodtyelpliengs (SA)
? Syntegration - and more…
? Bayesian Belief Networks (BBN)
? Evolutionary Learning Laboratory (ELLab)
? Sensitivity Model (SensiMod)
? Viable System Model (Introductory)
? Syntegration (Introductory)
Current Issues in the Media
? Economic Growth ? Climate Change
? Globalisation ? Carbon Emission
? Sustainability ? Water Shortage
? Social Dislocation ? Land Use
? Poverty ? Environment
? Human Health ? Biodiversity
? Animal Health ? Energy Crisis
? Food Safety ? Food Crisis
? Etc. ? Etc.
? 5
Current Issues in the Media
? These are some of the current headline issues that we
see/hear almost everyday in the media;
? The issues on the right column are mostly to do with the
ecological systems (the environment) while the issues on
the left column are to do with social-economic systems
(people);
? 6
Interconnected?
These issues are commonly dealt with in a ‘silo’/isolated
manner, however:
? They can not be regarded as single entities;
? There are close relationships between these issues.
? What are the relationships/interactions between these
issues/variables?
The Environment Loop
Land use
Water
R1
Deforestation Environment Economic Growth
Climate
Carbon
Modified from Maani and Nguyen (2009)
? We can use a tool of Systems Thinking (Causal Loop Diagram – which will be introduced shortly on the next few
pages) to develop a high-level systems model of the world issues;
? This model is the Environment Loop – you can see the relationship between each factor/variable;
? 8
Energy Loop Added
Land use
Water
R1
Deforestation Environment Economic Growth
R2
R2
Climate Energy
Energy
Carbon
Energy Use
Modified from Maani and Nguyen (2009)
? This model has the addition of the Energy Loop;
? You can see how the new Loop is formed with the addition of a new variable, namely ‘Energy use’
? 9
Population Loop Added
Population
Land use
Population
Water
R1
Poverty
Deforestation Environment Economic Growth
R2
R2
Climate Energy
Energy
Carbon
Energy Use
Modified from Maani and Nguyen (2009)
? This model has the addition of the Population Loop;
? You can see how the addition of the Population Loop has an impact/interaction with the other variables/factors and
Loops in the system;
? 10
Agriculture Loop Added
Food
Population
Agriculture
Land use
Population
Water
R1
Poverty
Deforestation Environment Economic Growth
R2
R2
Climate Energy
Energy
Carbon
Energy Use
Modified from Maani and Nguyen (2009)
? ‘Food’ is added into the Model to create an Agriculture Loop;
? The ‘high-level’ map/’big’ picture is getting more ‘complete’;
Biofuel Loop Added
Food
Population
Agriculture
Land use
Population
Water
R1
Poverty
Deforestation Environment Economic Growth
R2
R2
Biofuel Climate Energy
Energy
Carbon
R3 Energy Use
Biofuel
Modified from Maani and Nguyen (2009)
? A new loop (Biofuel Loop) is added to the model;
? You can see how ‘Energy use’ leads to an increase in ‘Biofuel’, subsequently ‘Land use’ and a chain effect on other
variables in the system;
? 12
An integrated Systems Model
Food
Population
Agriculture
Land use
Population
Water
R1
Poverty
Deforestation Environment Economic Growth
R2
R2
Biofuel Climate
Energy
Energy
Carbon
R3
Globalisation
Biofuel Energy Use
Modified from Maani and Nguyen (2009)
? We can now see how the factors/issues are interrelated; and ? ‘Globalisation’ is added to complete a high-level
how one action/decision could have an impact on the whole systems model of world issues (Dynamics of
system. Sustainability);
? 13
An integrated Systems Model
Food
Population
Agriculture
Land use ?
Population
Water
? ‘GlobalisationR1’ is added to complete a high-level map/systems
Poverty
Deforestation model ofE n tv hiro en m we ont rld issues (Dynamics of SustEacoinnoambic iGlriotwyt)h;
? We can see how the factors/issues are interrelated; and one
R2
action/decision could have an impact on the whole system.
Biofuel Climate
Energy
Carbon
R3
Globalisation
Biofuel Energy Use
Modified from Maani and Nguyen (2009)
? 14
Definition
S
Gov. support Employment
Lobbying S S Simulation as part of
framework S Engaging S Marketing opportunities core businesses
companies promotion S
S S Networking Resources S S S
S (human, financial) S S
Engagement S Dissemination
framework S S S
S Economic &
Community Funding social impacts Public S S
S of practice Investment Sustainability S S
S consciousness
Causal Loop Diagrams (CLDs) provide:
S S
S S Collaboration S Advisory team S S meO asu ut rc eo mm ee nts Patient cases S S S S Lin sk ti an tg e s &im nu al ta ioti no an l to
Common Access S policy
‘… a framework Ufsoer rfri esndelyeing interrelationships rather than Intl. & local
Cl &ar p i ft al ya
i
rt of no f
e
r g sm o sal IS
P
Ot sS wh nnei arnO
sh
pg
ip
ss h, oSfo tsr
’
.s e e i n O( o gnli n Ope) asys tte tm e R_r 7nS As
ut
hS o entf
ic
iR tc y_ h1 a C Con ull ra rg b ico urS e la ut
m
ivr eS aFe te Bd h 1b Ga ec rak Or
du
at th
e
an static Srec Sognition S R A_ cc4 redS
itation
S Technical & S S Positive/evident framework
Knowledge & competency
S Acceptance S S time concerns S outcomes Acknowledgment
Experience sharing
of cultural dif f. S R_8 S S R_6 PeS ter SeS nge (20S06) of SLE R_5
S Safe learning envi. S S Patient S
S O Simulation
S outcomes S Accountability
S S
Leadership CPD Training
Champions SDirection S
S
Effectiveness S CS ompetence Clinical S S S S S Pub eli xc p a ec cc te ap tt ioa nn sce & S
S practice Simulation in
S S S S healthcare embedded S R_3 S
Coordinated
Personal
simulation R_2
commitment
Eng la eg ai dn eg r l socal GoS
vernance
SS ResearS ch SInnovations EducS
ation Impact
S
Public S
awareness
S
Evaluation
Risk management
S
Basic Elements of Causal Loop Diagrams
(CLDs) - Variable
(adapted from Maani and Cavana, 2007)
A causal loop diagram has two basic elements:
? Variables &
? Arrows
? A variable is a condition, state, action, or decision
which can influence, and can be influenced by other
conditions, states, actions, etc.
? A variable can be quantitative (e.g., number of
employees, kilograms of production, business profit,
etc.) or it can be qualitative (e.g., values, motivation,
reputation, feelings, respect, etc. ).
? 16
Basic Elements of Causal Loop Diagrams
(CLDs) - Arrow
(adapted from Maani and Cavana, 2007)
? An arrow indicates a causal relationship or change in
the state of two variables.
? Bank balance Interest payment
? S (or +) indicates a change in the Same direction.
? O (or -) indicates a change in the Opposite direction.
(See pp 32 – 33, ‘Systems Thinking for
Everyone’ book for more information)
? 17
Interest payment
S (+)
Bank balance
O (-)
Expenditure
? 18
How to decide on the sign?
Higher Interest Higher Bank balance
S (or +)
Lower Interest Lower Bank balance
Higher Expenditure Lower Savings
O (or -)
Lower Expenditure Higher Savings
? 19
Feedback
(adapted from Maani and Cavana, 2007)
? Feedback is a process in which outputs from a system affect the inputs
? Feedback loops arise when a sequence of interactions form a closed loop:
? A-B-C-A:
B
A
C
? 20
Loop Types
(adapted from Maani and Cavana, 2007)
? Reinforcing Loop (R)
? Positive feedback
+
The R-loop represents growing or
declining actions
? Balancing Loop (B)
? Negative feedback (counteracting)
-
The B-loop seeks stability or return to control, or
aims for a specific target
? 21
Example of a Reinforcing Loop
(adapted from Maani and Cavana, 2007)
? A reinforcing (R) loop can be a ‘virtuous cycle’ as illustrated in this example;
? A ‘R’ loop can also be a ‘vicious cycle’ as described in the next example;
S
R
Interest Savings
Savings Balance payment Balance
S
Virtuous Cycle
Time
? 22
‘Quality Problem’ - A Vicious Cycle
(adapted from Maani and Cavana, 2007)
? Example of a ‘R’ loop as a ‘vicious cycle’
S
Incidence of
Poor Quality S
Hiding Errors / R Management
Mistakes Punitive Action
Quality
S
Vicious Cycle
Fear of Blame /
Punishment
S
Time
? 23
Example of Balancing Loops
? In this model, the three balancing (B) loops ‘counteract’ the impact of the
reinforcing (R) loop;
S
Attraction of CB
O
island Prostitution and
Biodiversity drug use
S
S
S
Number of tourists Link to Social
Pollution
Dev loop
B1
S
S
B3
S
R
Available Tourism revenue
underground water B2
Waste S
O
S S
Hotels and
Restaurants
Link to Eco Dev
Use of loop
underground water
S
Nguyen & Bosch (2013). Using Systems Thinking to Identify Leverage Points for Sustainability. Systems
Research & Behavioral Sciences, Vol.30, No.2, pp 104-115.
? 24
Differentiating between a ‘R’ and B’
(adapted from Maani and Cavana, 2007)
1. Using logic or intuition to identify the nature of the loop: growing
or declining action (R), counteracting process or seeking stability
(B).
2. Tracing the loop variable by variable: start and end with the same
verb (R), with the opposite verb (B).
Start from a variable with a verb (e.g. ‘increase’) and go around the loop until
you come back to this variable, if you end with the same verb (i.e. ‘increase’)
– it is a R loop, and if you end with an opposite verb (i.e. ‘decrease’) – it is a B
loop
3. Counting the number of ‘O’ (or ‘-’ sign) in the loop: zero or even
number (R), odd number (B).
(Note: counting the number of ‘O’ sign should be used to ‘double check’ the
confirmation of loop type (after doing # 1 and/or 2 above)
? 25
Rules for drawing CLDs
(adapted from Sherwood, 2002)
? Rule 1: Know your boundaries. Depending on the system of interest (e.g. if it is an individual
elephant, the boundary should be around a single elephant; elephants as social animals, the boundary is
the herd; elephant as part of the ecosystem, then the whole ecosystem of central Africa is the boundary);
? Rule 2: Start somewhere interesting. What are the key items/variables that relate to the
problems we want to solve?
? Rule 3: Ask ‘What does this drive?’ & ‘What is this driven by?’ Linking variables
together;
? Rule 4: Use nouns, not verbs. The use of a ‘verb’ will make it very confusing for you to
understand the loop;
? Rule 5: Don’t use terms such as ‘increase in’ or ‘decrease in’ This is the ‘job’ of the
arrows;
? Rule 6: Systems thinking looks ‘up’ and ‘out’, in contrast to the spreadsheet mentality that
looks ‘down’ and ‘in’. Building consensus on what makes most sense;
? Rule 7: Do the ‘S’ and ‘O’ as you go along This is to keep you ‘on track’ with a big model (it is
hard and confusing to put the signs in later);
? Rule 8: A good diagram must be recognised as real. A CLD should represent the ‘current’
situation;
Rule 9: Don’t ‘fall in love’ with your diagram. This is not ‘easy’ to avoid!
Rule 10: No diagram ever ‘finished’. Things keep changing and you can add to/refine your CLD
26
But, this might be too much!
A dynamic systems model of the Afghanistan conflict
The New York Times, April 26, 2010, retrieved from http://www.nytimes.com/2010/04/27/world/27powerpoint.html?_r=1
27
Causal Loop Modelling
Step1. Gathering mental models to identify variables for the sustainable
development of Cát Bà Island, Vietnam
Tourism revenue******* ? Services
NR conservation******* ? Infrastructure
Livelihood of Commoner ? Waste*******
Life expectancy ? Hotels , Restaurants*****
Governance structures*** ? Attraction of CB Island
Policies ? Access to markets
Poverty******* Waste ? Investment in agriculture Poverty
Educated population ? Information and communication
Lack of Integrated Planning****** ? Misuse of NR******
NGOs ? Health
People's awareness ? New construction
Social evils/crime ? Tourism pollution*******
Cultural values ? Agricultural pollution
Population******* ? Available underground water******
Immigration ? Number of tourists
Water
GDP per capita ? Other pollution sources Tourism
Tourism Development****** ? Use of underground water
Note: This is an example of the outcomes of a ‘face-to-face’ workshop conducted to identify the issues on Cát Bà
Island (Step 1 of the ELLab, which will be discussed in detail in Module 7).
? 28
Step 2: Move variables around until clear themes are appearing
Services
New construction
Tourism pollution Infrastructure
Waste Agricultural pollution Hotels , Restaurants
Tourism Development
Attraction of CB Island
Access to market
Number of tourists
Available underground water
Investment in agriculture
Other pollution sources
Information and communication
Use of underground water
Tourism revenue
GDP per capita
NR conservation
Agriculture revenue Food safety
Misuse of NR Health
Other income Sources
Life expectancy
Biodiversity Live lihood of Commoner
Poverty
Educated population
Governance structure
Population
Immigration
Policies
Student population
Cultural values
Lack of Integrated Planning
Social evils/crime
NGOs
People's awareness
? 29
Step 3: Systemic Structure (of Cát Bà Biosphere) after variables have been
linked with arrows.
For you: What are ‘missing’ from this model?
Other pollution sources
Service quality Agriculture
Attraction of pollution
CB island
New construction
Biodiversity Infrastructure
Number of
Tourism
tourists Agriculture
pollution
revenue
Tourism Access to
revenue market
Available
Investment in
underground Waste agriculture
water
GDP per
Hotels and Information and
capita
Restaurants communication
Use of
underground
water
Misuse of Livelihood of
NR Commoner Food safety
NR conservation
Health
Poverty
Life expectancy
Educated Immigration
Lack of Integrated planning
population
Population
Student
Cultural population
NGOs Governance Policies values
structure Social
issues
Tourism
).detacidni ton era s’O‘ dna ’S :rewsnA( People’s
development
awareness
Practical Exercises
1. Develop a CLD of your own ‘system’ (individual work)
E.g. A complex issue at work; a marriage and family life; an environmental
issue; your small business; ………..any ‘system’ that you want to improve or
think can be improved/enhanced.
2. Develop a CLD of a complex issue that your group would like to
solve and improve (group work)
For Educational Purposes you can use the ‘Vensim’ software free of
charge .