OPSMGT 255: Assignment 1

Introduction to Operations and Supply Chain Management

Due Date: 11:59pm Friday 4th April 2024, via Canvas

Instructions

Submission requirements

o  1 PDF file containing all your answers

o 1 Excel file containing your workings (Use the template provided)

Notes:

•    It is recommended that you write your assignment in a Word file (or equivalent) and then convert it to a PDF.

•    The PDF file should be presented as a technical business report and should include the required elements, e.g. title page, page numbers, etc. (see page 2 for further details)

•    The results in the Excel file will be examined to make sure they are consistent with what is in the PDF file, but it will not be marked directly. Make sure all your answers, graphs, results etc. are visible in the PDF.

This assignment is marked out of 100 marks and contributes 15% towards your final grade.

Referencing: all sources must be referenced appropriately using APA referencing. See Quick©ite for more information.

Late Assignments and Extensions: refer to the Course Syllabus page on Canvas

Originality: This assignment is an individual piece of work. When you submit your assignment, you need to agree to  the Academic honesty declaration on Canvas.

Assignments may be reviewed by plagiarism detection software such as TurnItIn. For more information about academic integrity refer to the Assessment page on Canvas.

Generative AI: You are welcome to use generative AI (GenAI) tools to assist with your assignment; however, you should be aware that these tools can produce errors, biased information, or misleading outputs. It is your responsibility to critically evaluate any content generated, verify its accuracy, and ensure that your work reflects your own understanding and thinking. GenAI can support your learning, but it cannot replace the essential process of engaging with the material, analysing ideas, and developing your own insights. Remember, effective use of AI means using it as a tool to enhance your work, not as a substitute for your intellectual effort.

Mark allocation:

Overview

In this assignment you will investigate and analyse the company Farmers Box (https://farmersbox.co.nz/). In part 1 you will analyse the strategy of the company, in part 2 you will perform. decision analysis and in part 3 you will forecast demand. Your assignment should be written as a technical business report, with numbered subheadings for each question.

Professionalism and Formatting Requirements

Well-written, correctly referenced, and properly formatted reports are essential in all business environments. Hence, it is crucial that you apply professional formatting to the submission.

Total: 10 marks

a.  Submission includes an appropriately formatted cover page with the following details:

i.    your name and/or ID

ii.    the course name

iii.    the assignment name

iv.    the date

There are no specific formatting requirements for the cover page, however, make sure that it looks professional.

b. An Excel file is submitted and contains workings which correspond to the answers in the PDF file. You should use the template provided. (No marks are awarded, but submission of the Excel file is a requirement of this assignment).

c.  The assignment should be presented as a technical business report.

•   Executive Summary, Introduction and Conclusion are not required in this assignment.

•   Table of contents should be included.

•   Section headings should be used to identify questions. Headings should be short, but should reflect the question requirements, as well as the question number, e.g. for Q1a could have a section heading such as "1a. Company Overview".

•   Pages should be numbered (but not the title page)

•   Tables and figures should be numbered and have captions.

•   Tables and graphs should be appropriately labelled and formatted

•   Tables and graphs can be pasted into the Word document as images.

•   The Word/PDF file should not contain Excel formula e.g. =A1+B2

•   When stating the final answer, or discussing your answer in a sentence, units should be included, e.g. 30 tickets, $542, 23 eggs.

•   References, where needed, should be included using APA style.

•   Overall, the assignment should be presented professionally, including, but not limited to neatness, spelling, grammar.

1. Strategy Total: 30 marks

a. Describe the company. Include details about their location, mission, and the product/service they provide. (approx. 100 – 200 words)                 5 marks

b. Name 3 competitors of Farmers Box. For each competitor, briefly justify why they are a competitor. (2 – 3 sentences per competitor)               6 marks

c. What is the core competence of Farmers Box? Justify your answer. (approx. 75 – 150 words)           4 marks

d. What are the order qualifiers and order winners for customers who shop at Farmers Box (compared with the competitors you have mentioned in part b). Justify your answer. (approx. 150 – 250 words)           5 marks

e. From a strategic operations perspective, describe TWO challenges that this organisation is potentially faced with. (approx. 150 – 250 words total)                 10 marks

2.   Decision Analysis Total: 25 marks

Farmers Box currently delivers to Auckland and Rotorua but is considering alternative market locations. One option is to expand its operations to include Taupo as well. Another option is to stop delivering to Rotorua and deliver only to Auckland. The payoffs for each decision depend heavily on petrol prices. These are summarised in the following payoff table and are shown in thousands of dollars:

a.  Determine the best decision based on the following decision criteria:

i.     Maximax

ii.     Maximin

iii.     Minimax regret

iv.     Equal likelihood

Use Excel to do the calculations for this question. The PDF file should show the payoff table, regret table, workings for each decision criteria (e.g. maximum for each state and minimum of those number), conclusion for each decision criteria. If analyses for multiple decision criteria are presented in the same table, use statements such as “in Table 1… ”.

b. It is estimated that petrol prices will increase with a probability of 0.5, remain stable with a probability of 0.3 and decrease with a probability of 0.2. Compute the expected value (EV) of the three decisions and use this to determine the best decision.

Use Excel to do the calculations for this question. The PDF file should show the relevant workings for each decision and a conclusion. 5 marks (1 mark for each EV + 2 marks for conclusion)

c. How much would it be worth for Farmers Box to know the exact future petrol prices before deciding on their delivery strategy? Interpret your result in a way that is meaningful for the Chief Operating Officer at Farmers Box.

Use Excel to do the calculations for this question. The PDF file should show the relevant workings and a conclusion.             4 marks

d. Summarise the findings from part a. What advice would you give to Farmers Box? Relate your answer to the business context in which Farmers Box is operating.                       4 marks

3.   Forecasting Total: 35 marks

Farmers Box has observed the following demand for pineapples and eggs over the past 11 months. They would like to forecast demand for March. In Excel, please use two separate sheets for answering parts a and b according to the template provided.

a.  Consider the data for pineapples.

You may choose to include 1 figure containing answers to parts i and v, and 1 table containing answers to parts ii, iii and iv, or you could choose to use separate figures/tables for each part. Either way, your figures and tables should have captions which include a Figure/Table number. Remember to add text under each question heading referring to the Figure/Table (e.g. “As shown in Table 1…”).

i. Use Excel to plot the data with months on the x-axis and demand on the y-axis. Write 2 – 3 sentences describing your plot, including any trends and patterns. 3 marks

ii. Use Excel to compute a 4-month moving average. Show the forecasts for August – March.             3 marks

iii. Use Excel to compute a 4-month weighted moving average, with weights of 0.5, 0.2, 0.2 and 0.1, (where 0.5 is used for the most recent period and 0.1 is used for the least recent period). Show the forecasts for August – March.              3 marks

iv. For each of the forecasting methods in parts ii and iii, use Excel to compute the mean absolute deviation (MAD). Based on your answer, which forecasting method would you recommend? Justify your answer.            3 marks

v. Add the forecasts from part ii and iii to your plot in part i.                         3 marks

b.  Consider the data for eggs.

You may choose to include 1 figure containing answers to parts i and v, and 1 table containing answers to parts ii, iii and iv, or you could choose to use separate figures/tables for each part. Either way, your figures and tables should have captions which include a Figure/Table number. Remember to add text under each question heading referring to the Figure/Table (e.g. “As shown in Table 1…”).

i. Plot the data with months on the x-axis and demand on the y-axis. Write 2-3 sentences describing your plot, including any trends and patterns.              2 marks

ii. Add a linear trendline to your graph and use it to forecast demand from April – March.              2 marks

iii. Compute a (simple) exponentially smoothed forecast using an α value of 0.70.                 2 marks

iv. Compute an adjusted exponentially smoothed forecast (α =0.70 and β = 0.80).                 2 marks

v. Add the forecasts from part iii and iv to your plot in part i.           2 marks

vi. For each of the forecasting methods in parts ii, iii and iv compute the mean absolute deviation (MAD). Based on your answer and the plot in part v., which forecasting method would you recommend? Justify your answer.               2 marks

vii. Experiment with different values of α and β and observe the effect on the mean absolute deviation (MAD) for the simple and adjusted exponential smoothing forecasts. Can you find an α and β which provide lower MAD values, than those in part vi? Write 2-3 sentences about your findings.                2 marks

c. Explain the results of your analysis in parts a and b to the Inventory Manager at Farmers Box. Mention any limitations of your analysis, as well as suggestions for future analysis.                   6 marks